FIFA Data Scientists Explain Match Momentum

In this special interview episode, Lester Nare speaks with Juan Busso, Senior Football Data Scientist at FIFA, and Arron Ackerman, FIFA’s Team Lead for Football Performance Analysis, about the data science behind the Match Momentum visualization featured throughout the 2026 World Cup. What does “momentum” actually mean in football—and how can it be measured without reducing the game to possession or shots? Juan and Arron explain how FIFA turns football principles into mathematical models, validates those models with coaches and technical experts, and translates complex tracking data into a graphic that fans can understand at a glance. We break down the underlying “threat” model, including kinetic pitch control, player speed and acceleration, ball trajectories, defensive spacing, distance to goal, sight lines, and the creation of space. Match Momentum is calculated from player-tracking data captured 50 times per second, allowing the model to recognize when a team is becoming dangerous even without dominating possession. We also discuss FIFA’s broader data ecosystem—including event data, skeletal tracking, and the connected match ball—why offside positioning can still create threat, whether hydration breaks change momentum, and the next generation of football analytics focused on player energy and physical effort. Guests Juan Busso — Senior Football Data Scientist, FIFA Arron Ackerman — Team Lead, Football Performance Analysis, FIFA