Case study setup (figure skating pressure moment)

1:10:29two-time reigning world champion. Pre-event odds before he went for the freekate portion, the individual free skate portion, -10,000, which is implying a probability of 99% at gold. That tells me two things. One, this guy is incredibly good and everyone is thinking he's going to get gold. And two, the bookkeepers have really terrible models. [laughter] Okay? Because how do you not include the variability >> Mhm. >> of the Olympics? The Olympics is like no other event in sports, >> especially for these types of sports. There's the World Championships, okay? He's a two-time world champion. The

1:11:09Olympics is different. I don't watch the World Championships, okay? People who are into ice skating will watch the World Championships. But everybody is watching the Olympics, right? >> I think I just saw this chart the other day where the Winter Olympics is like the number five most watched sporting event only behind like the cricket world cup, the summer Olympics and the World Cup. >> Uh and one other event that's escaping me, but it is and it's in the bill like it's a massive it's like it's like 10x the Super Bowl. Like it it's very very watched. >> Yes. Exactly. He was the quad guad. He was gonna get gold. 99% chance. He gets on the ice and he completely chokes.

1:11:51Okay. He He was gonna make this quad axle, which was going to be the first time anyone's ever done it in competition. Everyone was looking forward to it. This was crazy. I was watching it live, dude. Um he goes for his first jump, which is the quad flip. Does it very well. The commentators say it's an effortless start. The next one is going to be this quad axle. And the commentators say if he's going to go for the quad axle, it's going to be this next one. >> He think I think he goes for it in the middle of the jump. He abandons it. >> He only does one turn. >> Mhm. >> And from there, it just unravels. >> Like mentally, he just like completely collapsed. >> Yep. Yep. >> Okay. >> And

1:12:31>> I just thought that was so fascinating >> because this is a guy who's done that routine probably thousands of times. He's prepared for it, right? And the Olympic ice is just different, >> right? Mhm. >> The It's still water. It's still H2O. But there's something that is different about that moment. >> Yes. >> That just completely the house of cards just completely collapsed. >> And it's not a physics issue. >> No. >> Like we talked about earlier. No, >> it is a potent it's a neuroscience. >> It's a neuroscience issue. And afterwards he said it's the Olympics and I think people only realize the pressure and the nerves that actually happen when you're on the ice, right? And it was something that just overwhelmed me and I felt like I had no control. This is a

1:13:13quote from Ilia. And from there I wanted to talk about sort of what that means. What is going on in an athletes brain when something like that happens. And before we jump in I just want to be clear here. Um especially as someone who is a former athlete at high level. This is not meant to be disparaging to Ilia. Uh no sports is extremely difficult. Yeah. >> And the stakes are very high. There's a lot of money involved. >> Uh it is just the topic that is