Alignment significance (~3.9σ) and why it’s not decisive alone

1:33:31episode about the uh strongest evidence yet for life on an exoplanet which was uh three sigma >> which was three sigma. This is 3.9. It's higher, but it's still not five sigma. Sure. Right. But it's kind of interesting. Okay. And this is just candidate five. There's other candidates that also have around three sigma, right? And they they go through this in their paper. Um that's actually not personally what I found the most interesting. The alignment is like I don't know by chance. I don't really know how to reason about that in my head about how often to do things by chance. And also the the framework the the statistical framework by Edmunds and

1:34:12George it relies on a bunch of different things like the number of objects in the sky the assumption about the density of objects how high they are like all this other kind of stuff right the earth's shadow test is I think a decisive diagnostic so here's the logic you've got the sun you've got the earth and the earth casts a shadow on the rest of space right when the moon goes in in the earth shadow that's how you get a lunar eclipse.