Small samples and confirmation bias

1:32:08>> with a pretty big bubble >> with a pretty big bubble, right? Which means the bigger the bubble, the more tolerant the referees are, so to speak, in this >> in this >> in a very crude crude example, right? >> And >> it naively >> Yeah. would suggest, >> yeah, >> that the referees are being biased. >> Argentina won most penalties while its opponents receive a yellow card after five fouls committed. They get a yellow after 19 fouls committed. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, Argentina needs 19 fouls to commit to get a yellow. Their opponents need about five. >> I don't know. >> Yeah. Right. And that's what that's what I would say, too. I don't know. >> Because I want to believe.

1:32:48>> Look, >> I want to believe. But I'm I'm I'm going to also have to put on my like data scientist hat on. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> And just do some good hygiene. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> First of all, >> yes, >> it's an incredibly small sample size. >> Okay. >> All right. If you go back to that, right, >> this is 22. >> Yeah. Uh if you go back to that, okay, the x-axis is disc is discretized by negative 1 0 1 2 and three. But they've made the the plot fatter on the x- axis. So, it seems like the x-axis is the more salient dimension. >> I see that. >> But like there's nothing there's no way

1:33:29to have a 2.5. >> Yeah. Right. Right. I I see what you're saying. >> Okay. So, so already there's there's a bit of like movie magic happening. >> There's a little bit of manipulation of the visual representation. >> Now, the other thing is they're treating every foul equally, right? That's not completely true. Like if you've got a team like Argentina that presses all the time, you've got someone like Messi who's like always in your space then like if you commit a foul against them, there's a higher chance of like that resulting in a penalty. That's not truly accounted for here. >> Okay. >> Right. So style of play perhaps is not something that is that is accounted for. Like Kate Verde for example, like those

1:34:10dudes had a great defense for for quite a while. >> So So yeah. So part of what you're say like okay I think style of play I I'm I think that example may be contested but generally speaking um this idea of if you play haram ball which is what Arsenal plays >> and you just sit and it's 11 of you in your own box and then you just wait to counterattack like necessarily you don't have a lot of opportunities as much theoretically as many opportunities to be fouled. >> Exactly. Egypt certainly did that >> because you're not on the ball. >> Yeah. >> Right. So, so that's not something that has been taken into account. Also, the types of fouls like Argentina

1:34:51may like the fact that they require 19 fouls to get a yellow. Perhaps it's because they're doing smaller technical fouls. Now, anecdotally, I would say that's not [laughter] true. >> The comments are going to go crazy. Um, but there's all sorts of like I I think with all of this stuff and I think the author of the North Northeastern paper, right, or the Northeastern study actually said this, like there's like this kind of exercise given the small data size. >> Sure. >> And like the heat of what we're doing like the exercise is fraught with confirmation bias, right? But at the end of the day,

1:35:32it's the World Cup and I personally [laughter] want FIFA to be biased to Argentina. So, so at the end of the day, all I'm going to say is like, look, is this is this truly convincing data that Argentina, sorry, is this truly convincing data that there is a bias for Argentina by FIFA? No. But do I care? Also, no. All right. So, yeah. # #rigged # stop the steel >> uh better callinfantino. I just want everyone to know that I am not an Argentina supporter and I do not condone any rigging. However, I will say

1:36:12the comment thread is going to be full of the shot of Messi giving a red card foul raise on the calf, one of the main injuries we saw from our Are You Smarter Than a Scientist game show segment. uh and say, "Oh, how is this not a foul never gets called?" Like, that's I'm just saying it because I already know. >> Yeah. There's >> it's going to be the image that is all in the clips of this. Yeah. And let's put this at the end of the clip. >> Yeah. >> So that people who comment it before reaching the end of the video, which apparently no one watches >> 90 seconds of content Yeah. anymore >> before just ra >> I just I just want you guys to know you you are your brain is rotting because

1:36:53this is a 90second clip and you saw Christian say something about Argentina that was favorable and then we came in here and said yes we know about the Messi foul with the thingy and his plate in the calf and you're going to put the image of it and you're going to look stupid. I just want you to know that [laughter] that's I just got to I had to get that off my chest. >> Yeah. And and yeah, the point the point basically being like >> look, I I don't know how much of me thinking that there's an Argentina bias, it's just because of all the stuff that I'm seeing on social media. But for the purposes of me enjoying this England versus Argentina game, I am believing 100% of it

1:37:35>> and I want Argentina to go down. And that is rare coming from a of a from an Indian >> 100% [snorts] of Indian descent. memes with the map where it's like the two countries that care. It's like Argentina and India that want India to win and the rest of the world is England. >> No, like I'm I want I want England to win. Rule Britannia as they say. >> Again, we'll put this at the end of my part of the clip >> so people also No, but this it'll be fun. It's great. >> The World Cup is great. you know, the US is out, which we're not gonna comment on, but yeah. Um, I as a Chelsea fan of the Chelse is I want to see Tuke be successful because my club unceremoniously

1:38:16sacked him after he brought us a Champions League with nobody's >> like like he he he brought us a Champions League with >> like like with with anyway I'm not can't think of analogy but like with we did not have the best players on paper. >> Yeah. >> Right. And then there's some >> and you got to the won the Champions League >> and we won. >> That's quite good. >> Captain America Christian Pulik has a Champions League thanks to Thomas Tukul, the current England >> gaffer. So I know he's good. >> I know he can do a lot with a little. There's talent on the England squad. >> I I'm so conflicted about this game.

1:38:57>> Yeah. because I have I have disdain for both for different reasons >> and it's like it's what's the lesser what's the lesser of two evils? I will say as a fan of the Prem >> I will likely have to say I would prefer >> to see England win this one and then lose in the final. It can't come home right now. We can't have us lo Let me not I'm not going to talk about >> Yeah. at America's 250th. Yeah. Like like we can't this is supposed to be our celebration and then they win it. >> Yeah. >> We just can't have our >> Especially after we we didn't just lose, we like got embarrassed >> and then the Europeans rub it in our

1:39:39face. >> Yeah. And and like we deserve it and we deserve it cuz we we had the whole red card bal like it got reversed. It was just like it's just like it was like the worst way to go out, dude. It's bad management. Okay. >> Yeah. It was so bad. >> None of us asked for anything to be rescended. All right. >> [laughter] >> I know Quansa had the twoame suspension which doesn't make sense and Balagan got it removed. This is getting in the weeds. Yeah, this is not a sports podcast. However, so the last thing that I want to say, okay, is like cuz I was like going in a deep dive about like what could it be, right? >> Right. >> I have a theory about the Argentina bias. >> Okay. >> That I think is new. >> Okay. >> Oo, new Argentina bias.

1:40:20>> So, it could be >> that there is a bias for Argentina and FIFA has nothing to do with it. >> Okay. Okay. It could be that they have a homecourt advantage at all of these games because I don't know if you've seen in all of these Argentina games, the stands are flooded with Argentina fans. >> It's the Messi effect. >> Yeah, it's the Everybody has an Argentina jersey, mostly a Messi jersey. >> Ah, I see what you're saying. >> So, there there is stud there are studies. So, this is in 2007. um Boco um and other researchers what they did was try to try to quantify the home